Theory Demand

What we do

The growth problem is usually an operations problem.

Brands past $1M can nearly always buy demand. What breaks is everything the order touches after the click: what it costs to make, ship, discount and take back. That is the work.

Where the money actually goes

A $100 order at a brand doing a few million a year. Six of the seven lines are operations. One is marketing, and it is the one everyone looks at first.

Order value $100.00Illustrative figure, not a client result
Cost of goods−32.00
Customer acquisition−28.00
Shipping & fulfilment−14.00
Discounts & promos−9.00
Returns & damages−6.00
Payment processing−3.00
Contribution$8.00

Eight dollars. That is what every decision about paid spend, pricing and assortment is really being made against. Most brands at this size have never calculated it precisely, by SKU, by region, after returns. Getting all seven lines exact is where we start.

The five areas

01

Margin

Landed cost, shipping economics, discount leakage, return cost.

We rebuild contribution margin order by order rather than from account averages: real landed cost per SKU, actual postage paid per parcel, the discount total nobody owns, and returns attributed back to the products causing them.

02

Supply

Supplier terms, MOQ negotiation, reorder timing.

What is actually movable in a supplier agreement and what is theatre. Order quantities and timing set against real sell-through instead of a spreadsheet forecast, so cash stops sitting in the wrong stock.

03

Fulfilment

3PL cost per parcel, multi-region routing, customs.

Decomposing the monthly 3PL invoice into a true cost per parcel by destination, then fixing what that exposes. International routing, who is importer of record, and whether your domestic orders are quietly subsidising your overseas ones.

04

Pre-orders

Buying inventory against committed demand, not forecast.

Drops, deposits, waitlists and staged launches. Mechanism design, deposit structure, the customer communication sequence, and the fulfilment plan for stock that lands in pieces. Launches that fund themselves before a unit is bought.

05

Payments

Checkout conversion, processing cost, alternative rails.

Payment mix and the true cost of it, including cross-border and currency conversion. Checkout measured where the drop-off actually happens. Stablecoin settlement where it reduces cost or reaches a customer cards will not.

You probably know the symptoms

If two or more of these sound like your business, there is usually real money sitting in the gap.

  • Revenue is up and margin is flat, and nobody can say exactly why.
  • Paid spend used to work at this level and has quietly stopped.
  • You are guessing at reorder quantities and getting them wrong in both directions.
  • Cash is tied up in stock that is not the stock selling.
  • International orders feel expensive but nobody has priced them properly.
  • A launch sells out and you cannot tell whether it made money.

Two ways to start.

A single working session, or ongoing work where we hold the function day to day. Prices are published.

See pricing